AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Amid unprecedented tensions between Washington and Ottawa in recent months, reports indicate that officials from the United States Department of State have held at least three meetings with leaders of separatist movements in Canada’s Alberta province.
According to US media outlets, the meetings over the past year involved members of the Alberta Prosperity Project, a group advocating for the province’s independence. Discussions reportedly included the possibility of political backing from President Donald Trump’s administration and even the prospect of a $500 billion line of credit to help finance a potential transition to independence.
Rising Strains Between Washington and Ottawa
Since the start of Trump’s second presidential term, relations between the United States and Canada have entered a turbulent phase. Trump previously suggested that Canada could become the “51st state” of the United States and later threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on all Canadian imports.
In one of the latest flashpoints, on February 11, Trump threatened to block the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge, a 2.4-kilometer bridge connecting Detroit in the United States to Windsor in Canada. He stated that the bridge would not be allowed to open until the United States was “fully compensated.” The Canadian government, however, has emphasized that the nearly $4 billion cost of the project was fully financed through domestic resources.
Alberta: Energy Hub and Conservative Stronghold
Alberta, with its capital in Edmonton and a population of approximately five million, is located in western Canada and accounts for nearly 85 percent of the country’s oil production. Canada is the world’s fourth-largest oil producer and fifth-largest exporter, with the industry heavily concentrated in Alberta, underscoring the province’s economic significance.
Last year, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith stated that holding a provincial referendum on separation from Canada was a possibility. She also traveled to Trump’s residence at Mar-a-Lago, a move that drew considerable media attention.
Alberta is regarded as a core base of conservative political currents in Canada, while the federal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, has adopted a more progressive stance with a stronger emphasis on environmental policies. Disputes over energy and environmental regulation have become central sources of friction between Ottawa and the province.
Legal and Structural Obstacles to Independence
Despite renewed debate over secession, significant legal and structural barriers remain. While Canadian provinces enjoy considerable autonomy, full independence would require the establishment of separate institutions in areas such as a central bank, armed forces, electricity grids, water resource management, and foreign policy.
Canada is also a member of the Commonwealth of Nations, and Charles III serves symbolically as head of state. Any territorial restructuring would require complex legal procedures and approval from institutions tied to Canada’s constitutional monarchy, an issue that previously posed serious challenges during Quebec’s independence referendums in the 1990s.
Economic Risks for a Landlocked Province
A key challenge for an independent Alberta would be its landlocked geography. The province’s oil exports rely on pipelines passing through British Columbia to reach Pacific ports. Secession would likely necessitate complex negotiations with neighboring provinces to secure continued access to critical infrastructure.
Moreover, Alberta’s economy is highly dependent on fluctuations in global oil prices. Periods of high prices boost revenue and employment, while downturns quickly trigger economic contraction.
Political and Social Context
Separatism is not new to Canada. In the 1990s, Quebec held two referendums on independence, both of which ultimately failed. The Quebec experience contributed to strengthening multicultural discourse at the national level.
However, rising political polarization and disputes over energy, environmental, and immigration policies have once again brought debates over autonomy and independence to the forefront in certain regions, including Alberta.
Overall, while Alberta’s independence has re-emerged as a topic in Canada’s political landscape, it faces substantial legal, economic, and structural obstacles. At the same time, escalating tensions between the Trump administration and Ottawa could further influence Canada’s internal dynamics and the future of bilateral relations.
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